2030: Projections for the Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce

Over the last few decades, the emergency physician workforce has undergone a dramatic transformation. There was a time when most physicians working in the emergency department had not completed residency training in emergency medicine. This began around 1970. Today, there are 273 emergency medicine residences accredited by the Accreditation Council for Graduation Medical Education (ACGME).

While emergency medical workers have increased their focus on accreditation and experience, there is very limited data on the numeric trends in residency graduate production, demand for emergency care, physician attrition, and integration of nurse practitioners and physician assistants in the provision of emergency care.

It is important to determine whether the current trends in emergency medicine will result in a deficit or surplus of residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians. A surplus is likely to be a positive for rural and underserved communities, but at the same time, this surplus could have marketplace consequences such as decreased compensation for workers and difficulty finding good jobs.

In a new study, researchers aimed to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurses, and physician assistants. The study also aimed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians.